A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
