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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It frequently serves as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround receives the prize. However, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the greatest shock.

Yet this year's field is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and recent strugglers rising collectively. During an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still